The Israeli army's Monday raid on Al-Shifa Hospital west of Gaza City comes almost five and a half months after the start of the war against Hamas and almost four months after the previous Israeli operation there. It took only a few hours for the division that conducted the raid to cross the Gaza Strip and encircle Shifa, illustrating the low level of resistance that Hamas is currently capable of displaying in northern Gaza. At the same time, the decision to launch a raid there shows that Hamas is far from surrendering, even in areas where the Israel Defense Forces has declared that it has fully dismantled the organization's military capabilities. Hamas has returned to operations in these areas, spurring Israel to conduct further raids.
The army was telling the truth when it said that Hamas' regional brigades and battalions in the northern Strip were disbanded. But in their place, small terrorist networks are gradually re-emerging, seeking to prepare for further friction with the IDF. At the same time, the organization is busy restoring its governance in areas where it suffered a military defeat. In recent days, aid truck convoys have arrived in northern Gaza with fewer mishaps. It is unclear who is running things behind the scenes, but it could very well be Hamas.
Over the past few weeks, the IDF has identified that senior figures in the Hamas apparatuses and government ministries have returned to operating from Shifa. Some even brought their families to the hospital, assuming it would be safer for them there. On Monday morning, IDF forces operating at the hospital killed Faiq Mabhouh, a senior Hamas internal security official and brother of senior Hamas operative Mahmoud Mabhouh, who, according to foreign sources, was assassinated by Israel in Dubai in 2010. The brigade-scale operation took place under the command of the 401st Armored Brigade together with naval commandos and forces from the Nahal Brigade.
The forces ran into stubborn resistance in one of the hospital compounds. It appears that a force of bodyguards protecting senior Hamas officials was trying to extract them from the scene. Meanwhile, the IDF evacuated civilians from the hospital through a checkpoint, where dozens of men, some of them apparently Hamas operatives, were arrested. A soldier from the Nahal Brigade, Staff Sgt. Matan Vinogradov, 20, from Jerusalem, was killed in the fighting.
The operation at Shifa is expected to last for several days. It is not connected in any way to the operation in Rafah that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been threatening. It is difficult to see how an offense in Rafah could take place in the near future, especially during the Ramadan. The IDF has formulated operational plans for Rafah and has presented them to the government, but no order has been given to carry out these plans as of yet, and any execution of such plans will take time. If the government does decide to press forward with the Rafah plans, it will be ignoring the reservations expressed by the United States. Before any decision is made on Rafah, it is more likely that Israel will have to decide on a hostage deal.
A delegation headed by Mossad Director David Barnea left for Qatar on Monday – after a 24-hour delay – to continue negotiations on a possible hostage deal. It's unclear just how much leeway Netanyahu intends to grant the delegation to conduct the negotiations. Hamas is not represented in the talks between Israel and the mediators, the United States, Qatar and Egypt. Hamas' overseas leadership is mostly based in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and will be updated by the mediators. However, the ultimate decision-maker is Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The fact that Sinwar is being pursued by Israel as he hides in Gaza makes it difficult for him to maintain continuous contact with the Qatari leadership and thus slows down the pace of contacts.
FILE PHOTO: Israeli soldiers operating at Al-Shifa Hospital in November.Credit: IDF Spokesperson
Participants who took part in a meeting of the broader security cabinet on Monday night said they came out with a negative outlook on the chances of progress in the negotiations. Far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich (who are not part of the narrower war cabinet) have been leading a hawkish position that rules out Israeli concessions in exchange for the release of some 40 hostages in the first stage of a possible deal.
Netanyahu's position is not entirely clear, and it is difficult to know to what extent he is coordinated with the extreme right. Political sources still believe that what motivates the prime minister above all is his political survival and hold on power as his criminal trial progresses. To this end, Netanyahu needs more time, and therefore any delay in indirect negotiations with Hamas serves his interests, despite his declared commitment to rescuing the hostages.
Netanyahu's opposition to a possible hostage deal does not appear to be principled or sweeping. From his perspective, the major problem is a prolonged cease-fire that could herald the end of the war. The structure of the deal currently being discussed speaks of a six-week cease-fire, during which a first tranche of Israeli hostages will be returned in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, some of whom are considered high-profile. Even if talks run aground on a second phase of a deal – in which Israeli soldiers and younger men held by Hamas are expected to be released – it will probably be several more weeks before fighting resumes.
People walk past placards with photos of hostages kidnapped in Tel Aviv on Sunday.Credit: Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters
In other words, if an agreement on a hostage deal is reached, Israel will be headed to a cease-fire of at least two months. This does not serve Netanyahu since in that event, increased pressure to dissolve the Knesset can be expected, along with calls for a new election. One of Netanyahu's main arguments is that an election should not be held as long as the war is ongoing. This, he claims, will only serve Hamas. That was how he reacted this week to criticism from U.S. President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Netanyahu wants to emerge unscathed from the Knesset's winter session, which ends next month, and to do so in a way that will prevent a new election in the coming months.
Given this situation, it is increasingly urgent that the families of the hostages exert public pressure on the government. The talks currently going on in Qatar are focused around variations of the outline formulated in Paris about a month and a half ago. So far, the IDF has notified hostages' families about the deaths of 35 of the 134 hostages still held by Hamas in the Strip. Some were murdered on October 7 and their bodies taken into Gaza, while others have died in captivity in recent months. The hostages have no time to waste – and if the families don't raise the volume of their outcry and the public doesn't join in this effort, we may miss the opportunity to bring the rest home safely.
Moreover, talk of 99 hostages still alive is also misleading: The IDF determines that a hostage is dead only in cases where there is absolute certainty. Unfortunately, it would be reasonable to assume that a number of the hostages held by Hamas are dead even though they have not been officially pronounced dead by the IDF.